DR. GORDON FULKS COMMENTS ON "Unabated Warming"

Hello Everyone,

The Oregonian is at it again. Under a headline "Unabated Warming" on page 2 of the print edition in their Earthweek Feature Saturday, they make the following statements:
"Unabated Warming"
"This year is unfolding as the hottest ever with both the April and the entire January-April periods
ranking the warmest on record. Analysis by the U.S. agency NOAA confirms earlier predictions
that the year could turn out to be the warmest since reliable instrumental temperatures records
began in the late 1800s.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature average for April was 58.1 degrees
Fahrenheit, or 1.35 degrees warmer than the 20th century average.
The same coverage from January through April was 1.24 degrees above the average of the past
century. The previous record warmest year was 1998, and early indications are that 2010 will be
warmer still.
Despite a bitterly cold and snowy December and early January in the eastern U.S. and Canada,
satellite analysis reveals that the extent of snow cover in North America was the smallest for
any April since satellite records began in 1967."
The full article can be found here:
http://www.earthweek.com/2010/ew100521/ew100521a.html
(Be careful at this site. Norton AntiVirus warns of three "known security risks.")
This article is classic NOAA and WM propaganda that takes advantage of the latest El Nino which caused global temperatures to "soar" in a similar fashion to 1998. Through some sort of slight-of-hand, they are claiming that this El Nino is significantly larger than the one in 1998. That is false. Here is the best data we have (from NASA):
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
which NOAA does not use, because they cannot control it.
This El Nino peaked at 0.65 C compared to 0.75 C in 1998. As to "Unabated Warming," the satellite data show notably abated warming in 2008 and in 1999 to 2001. In other words, the global temperature is oscillating about a slightly elevated average of about 0.2 C as the oceans shed their stored heat, and the full impact of a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) takes hold. The anomaly for April was 0.5 C.
From the satellite data, it is easy to predict what is coming in the months ahead: a drop in the global temperature to near normal or slightly below normal. If we follow the 1998 pattern, this will last for a couple of years.
Globally averaged Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are now headed downward. El Nino SSTs are rapidly plunging as is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI):
http://www.drroyspencer.com/
(see second article for a full explanation under: "Globally Average Sea Surface Temperatures Poised for a Plunge.")
For the longer term outlook, I suggest people look at the talk given this week in Chicago by the noted Russian Astrophysicist Habibullo Abdussamatov, Dr. Sci.:
http://www.heartland.org/events/2010Chicago/program.html
He explains both the current oscillations and the outlook through this century. It is a chilling forecast from a world-class expert.
As to NOAA, Jane Lubchenko, and the rest of official U.S. government science that fully adheres to President Obama's policies as to what the climate ought to be doing, it is easy to predict their next moves. They will continue to tout the now dead El Nino because it will take some months for the atmosphere to cool even though ocean temperatures off of Peru are back to normal. Then they will just go into hibernation until they can find some other anomalous warming to tout.
Advocacy science continues unabated, and to no surprise, The Oregonian is happy to play its part.
Gordon J. Fulks, PhD
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Gordon,
Only this morning I lamented how cold this is for May. Yet whenever I point this out to global warmers, they tell me weather and climate are not the same.
~ Kathleen
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Dear Kathleen,
That is just one of the many games that global warmers use to try convince non-scientists to avoid drawing their own conclusions. In other words, "don't look out the window because it might challenge your faith in Global Warming!"
Gordon
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